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Somalia's
long search for peace takes a new turn this week with an ambitious
conference that aims to restore order to the country by curbing
the power of its warlords.
The conference,
which opens in the neighbouring Red Sea city state of Djibouti
on Tuesday, is to bring together some 1,000 businessmen, clan
elders, professionals and civic leaders from across Somalia.
The hope
is that participants will put aside clan rivalries and draw
up a deal allowing the formation of an interim central government
with significant autonomy for Somalia's regions.
But there
are also fears that the conference might fail and simply spark
another round of war.
"Any
attempt to honestly discuss the problems will help the cause
of peace but if they try to do too much too fast, they might
destabilise the situation even more," said one Western diplomat
whose government backs the conference.
Somalia
has been without a government since former dictator Mohamed
Siad Barre was overthrown in 1991 and the power vacuum was
filled by clan-based militia leaders fighting to expand their
personal fiefdoms.
A massive
U.S.-led international force went into Somalia in 1992 on
a mission to restore order but it took a beating at the hands
of the militiamen and was forced to pull out. Since then,
the warlords have signed numerous peace deals but all have
failed either because some were excluded from the start or
because the signatories resumed fighting almost as soon as
the ink had dried.
ISOLATE
THE MEN OF VIOLENCE
With
most Somalis tired of the fighting and signs that the militiamen
are more unpopular than ever before, the new peace plan is
focused on those who may be willing, and able, to cut a deal
without the warlords.
"This
is a meeting of Somalia's civil society," said Siad Dualeh
of the Djibouti government team organising the peace conference.
"Those
warlords willing to participate and embrace peace are welcome,
but they will not be given a leading role." Djibouti President
Ismail Omar Guelleh launched his peace initiative last year,
accusing Somalia's warlords of destroying the country and
saying peace can only come if they are isolated. Some of the
warlords support the peace conference -- especially those
who believe it could boost their own position -- but, not
surprisingly, others are far from impressed. "It is not helpful
to isolate the clan leaders. It is counterproductive," said
Abdulatif Afdub, a spokesman for Hussein Aideed, whose militiamen
in south Mogadishu did more than others to humiliate U.S.
forces in 1993. Afdub said Aideed supports the idea of a peace
conference but will probably not attend.
NO
EASY SOLUTIONS
It is
not just the militia leaders who are sceptical. Aid workers
with years of experience in Somalia said some of the businessmen
who are now seen as providing a ray of hope for the country
have bankrolled the militias for years, and neither the warlords
nor their backers will sit idly by if any peace deal threatens
their interests.
"Djibouti
has this totally idealistic platform of engaging civil society,
bu
t you
can't avoid the warlords," one said. "They are weaker than
they used to be, but they all have enough independent firepower
so they have to be included.
" Further
questions surround the position of Somaliland and Puntland,
two northern regions that have declared their independence
from the rest of Somalia.
Although
unrecognised internationally, they have had some success in
restoring peace and attracting foreign aid.
The leaders
of both regions are clearly worried the Djibouti peace conference
may bring calls for their reintegration with southern Somalia.
The peace
conference is to be held in a huge marquee in the hillside
resort of Arta, about 25 miles (40 km) south of Djibouti city.
It is
still not clear how the conference will be organised, who
is attending and how long it will last.
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